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Android Invasion: '1 Billion' By 2017

By Oonagh Reidy | Wednesday | 05/06/2013

Yes, it official, Androids are taking over the world.

Well, the phone market, at least - over 1 billion Android-based smartphones to ship in 2017, accounting for 2 out of 3 phones sold globally. 

In fact, Androids share will double from 470 million shipments in 2012 , as phone prices fall "dramatically."

Overall 1.5 billion smartphones will ship in 2017, accounting for 3 in 4 mobiles sold, Canalys predicts, and this phenomenal growth to be driven by Androids, made by the likes of Samsung, HTC and Motorola. 

Android arch rival Apple will suffer a fall from grace Canalys predicts, - to 14% share of the pie (from its current 20%) - blamed on its lack of affordable devices, unlike Samsung, LG  and Co. 

However, this forecast could change if Apple release a budget iPhone, as rumored. 

But another major surprise in the offing - Apple and Microsoft will be almost neck and neck in the smartphone race,  with Canalyst predicting massive growth for the new Windows Phone- set grow to 13% marketshare - thanks to Nokia and Chinese brands. 

'Apple's growth will be curtailed by the fact that momentum in the smart phone market is coming from the low end, and Apple is absent from this segment,' said Jessica Kwee, Canalys Analyst. 

'Android's continued dominance is due to the scalability of the platform.

Microsoft Windows 8, a new entrant to phone market has "made progress by enabling Huawei and Nokia to deliver Windows Phone products at aggressive price points," notes Kwee. 

However, it needs Chinese vendors like Huawei, ZTE who are "best placed to challenge Samsung's market dominance", and the scale Microsoft so desperately needs if its wants to catch up with Android. 

'Nokia is the most active vendor in the Microsoft camp and it continues to make steady progress with its Lumia portfolio"..says Kwee, noting some "major carrier wins" in China and the US, said Kwee

Struggling BlackBerry too will hold on to under 5% of the market but needs to "urgently reverse its fortunes in the US and focus on growing its presence in China," the analysts warn. 

In America, Europe, virtually all phones shipped will be smart phones. Even in Greater China, they will represent 95% of all mobile phone shipments in 2017. The market will grow at double the rate of 'dumb' phones - at 18% - while mobile shipments will decline 10%. 

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